Types of Betting Lines
Moneyline
The simplest bet: pick the winner. The odds determine the payout.
Example:
- Lakers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Celtics +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
The minus sign indicates the favorite; the plus sign indicates the underdog.
Point Spread
The spread levels the playing field by giving the underdog a head start.
Example:
- Lakers -5.5 (-110)
- Celtics +5.5 (-110)
Lakers must win by 6+ points to cover. Celtics cover if they win or lose by 5 or fewer.
Over/Under (Totals)
Bet on the combined score being over or under a set number.
Example:
- Over 220.5 (-110)
- Under 220.5 (-110)
If the combined score is 221+, over wins. If 220 or less, under wins.
Understanding Line Movements
Lines change based on:
- Betting action: Heavy money on one side moves the line
- Injuries/news: Player availability affects odds
- Sharp money: Professional bettors can move lines significantly
What Line Movements Signal
- Line moving toward a team: More bets/money coming in on that side
- Reverse AI predictions with confidence ratings: Line moves opposite to public betting (often indicates sharp action)
The Juice (Vig)
The -110 on both sides of a spread means you must risk $110 to win $100. This $10 difference is the bookmaker's profit margin (the "juice" or "vig").
Key Insight: To break even at -110, you need to win 52.4% of your bets.
Shopping for Lines
Different bookmakers offer different lines. A half-point difference can significantly impact long-term results. Always compare lines before betting.