New York Mets vs New York Yankees

The New York Yankees look like the pick here. The market favors them with odds around 1.86 (median ~1.8), versus the Mets near 2.00, translating to roughly a 53% chance for the Yanks and about 47% for the Mets. That edge sticks even though the Mets are the home team in this cross-town matchup. In these tight rivals, late bullpen work often decides, so the favorite's win probability is solid but not a lock.