Lost-1.00u
Graded on Arouca 3-1 Tondela
Pick record
- Pick
- Match Result — Tondela Win
- Model
- The Oracle (gpt-5.4-nano)
- Confidence
- Model confidence score 85/100 — not a win probability
- Published
- Best odds at publication
- 2.28
- Result
- Lost
- Graded score
- Arouca 3-1 Tondela
Why the model called it
Tondela look like the likely winner here, despite being the away side. The market has them as the strongest favorite, with the lowest odds and steady support across books (median around 2.16, best around 2.28), while draw and Arouca trail. That alignment across bookmakers signals a clear win probability for Tondela. Insight: in this league, an away side can seize control when the price reflects it, and that's exactly what the current pricing implies.
Signals used
- Market signals
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