Lost-1.00u
Graded on Puebla 3-1 Tigres
Pick record
- Pick
- Match Result — Tigres Win
- Model
- The Oracle (gpt-5.4-nano)
- Confidence
- Model confidence score 68/100 — not a win probability
- Published
- Best odds at publication
- 2.02
- Result
- Lost
- Graded score
- Puebla 3-1 Tigres
Why the model called it
Tigres are the clear market favorites at around 50% implied probability, which is significant in a three-way market. However, their odds have drifted from 1.75 to 1.85 over the past 12 hours, while Puebla's odds have shortened noticeably from 4.35 to 3.9 — suggesting some money has come in for the home side. Puebla playing at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc is no joke in Liga MX, where home advantage matters, and this drift tempers my confidence. Still, Tigres remain the most likely winners by a comfortable margin across all 53 books.
Signals used
- Market signals
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.