Lost-1.00u
Graded on Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul
Pick record
- Pick
- Match Result — Toluca Win
- Model
- The Oracle (gpt-5.4-nano)
- Confidence
- Model confidence score 72/100 — not a win probability
- Published
- Best odds at publication
- 1.82
- Result
- Lost
- Graded score
- Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul
Why the model called it
Toluca at home are clear favorites here — the market prices them around a 54% chance with strong bookmaker consensus at 1.73 median odds. Cruz Azul's odds show notable disagreement among books, suggesting uncertainty about their chances as visitors. Toluca's price has drifted slightly from 1.695 to 1.73 over 12 hours, but they remain comfortably the shortest in the market. Home advantage matters in Liga MX, and the books are aligned that Toluca should take this one.
Signals used
- Market signals
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