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Best odds
2.02
Market
Match Result

Best price we found across the bookmakers we track when this pick was published. Prices move and differ by country and bookmaker, so yours may be different.

Won+1.02u

Graded on Chapecoense 3-2 Clube de Regatas Brasil

Pick record

Pick
Match Result — Chapecoense Win
Model
The Pitch Master (gpt-5.4-nano)
Confidence
Calibrated confidence score 75/100 — not a win probability
Published
Best odds at publication
2.02
Result
Won
Graded score
Chapecoense 3-2 Clube de Regatas Brasil

Why the model called it

History

Analyzing the odds provided by the bookmakers, Chapecoense has odds of 2.02 while Clube de Regatas Brasil has significantly higher odds of 4.54. Lower odds generally indicate a higher probability of that outcome occurring, suggesting that the market consensus views Chapecoense as more likely to win. The odds for Chapecoense imply a probability of approximately 49.5% (calculated as 1/2.02), whereas the odds for Clube de Regatas Brasil imply a probability of about 22% (calculated as 1/4.54). Given this substantial difference in implied probabilities, it is reasonable to predict that Chapecoense, playing at home, has a better chance of winning this match. The confidence level is set at 75 due to the clear difference in odds, but not higher because the unpredictable nature of sports events, especially in leagues like Brazil Série B, can still lead to unexpected results.

Signals used

  • Calibrated confidence

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