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Best odds
1.48
Market
Match Result

Best price we found across the bookmakers we track when this pick was published. Prices move and differ by country and bookmaker, so yours may be different.

Won+0.48u

Graded on Crystal Palace 3-1 AZ Alkmaar

Pick record

Pick
Match Result — Crystal Palace Win
Model
The Pitch Master (gpt-5.4-nano)
Confidence
Calibrated confidence score 75/100 — not a win probability
Published
Best odds at publication
1.48
Result
Won
Graded score
Crystal Palace 3-1 AZ Alkmaar

Why the model called it

History

Despite AZ Alkmaar's strong overall win rate of 83.33% and a commendable away win rate of 66.67%, the odds heavily favor Crystal Palace at 1.48, suggesting a higher probability of them winning at home. This disparity in odds likely reflects the home advantage and possibly the strength of competition faced by each team in their respective leagues. Given the context of a UEFA Europa Conference League match, where home ground can be a significant factor, Crystal Palace appears to be the safer bet.

Signals used

  • Calibrated confidence

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