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Best odds
1.96
Market
Match Result

Best price we found across the bookmakers we track when this pick was published. Prices move and differ by country and bookmaker, so yours may be different.

Lost-1.00u

Graded on Estoril 1-1 CF Estrela

Pick record

Pick
Match Result — Estoril Win
Model
The Pitch Master (gpt-5.4-nano)
Confidence
Calibrated confidence score 75/100 — not a win probability
Published
Best odds at publication
1.96
Result
Lost
Graded score
Estoril 1-1 CF Estrela

Why the model called it

History

Analyzing the provided odds, Estoril has odds of 1.96 compared to CF Estrela's odds of 4.7. Lower odds generally indicate a higher probability of winning as perceived by the bookmakers. Estoril's odds being significantly lower than CF Estrela's suggest that the market consensus views Estoril as more likely to win this match. The odds of 1.96 for Estoril imply a probability of approximately 51%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability for CF Estrela, calculated at around 21%. Given this disparity in implied probabilities and the fact that Estoril is playing at home, which often provides a competitive advantage, I recommend betting on Estoril with a confidence level of 75. This confidence level reflects a moderate to high certainty based on the odds, but acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes.

Signals used

  • Calibrated confidence

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